Predicting potential transmission risk of Everglades virus in Florida using mosquito blood meal identifications

The overlap between arbovirus host, arthropod vectors, and pathogen distributions in environmentally suitable habitats represents a nidus where risk for transmission may occur. Everglades virus (EVEV), subtype II Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEEV), is endemic to southern Florida it transmitted by the vector Culex cedecei muroid rodent hosts. We developed an ecological niche model (ENM) predict areas EVEV based upon georeferenced vector-host interactions from PCR-based blood meal analysis blood-engorged female Cx. females. Thirteen environmental variables were used calibration, including bioclimatic derived Daymet 1 km daily temperature precipitation values, land use cover data representing percent within 2.5 buffer 2019 National Land Cover Database (NLCD) program. Maximum of warmest month, minimum coldest driest month contributed 31.6%, 28.5% 19.9% ENM performance. types contributing greatest performance landcover emergent herbaceous woody wetlands which 5.2% 4.3% performance, respectively. Results output showed high suitability feeding on rodents throughout southwestern portion state pockets along northern east coast Florida, while with low included Miami-Dade metropolitan area most Panhandle. Comparing predicted hosts present study historical human cases disease, as well antibodies wildlife show substantial moderate highly these vector/host associations. As such, findings this likely accurate distribution date, indicating that method allows better inference potential than models only consider or vertebrate host species individually. A similar approach using meals other arboviruses can be vector-borne diseases.